Tonight’s parliamentary election results will redraw the political map of Cyprus, triggering a major reshuffle across party leaderships, parliamentary dynamics, and the groundwork for the 2028 presidential race.
The vote will deliver an immediate vote of confidence or a direct challenge to current party leaders, while dictating how smoothly President Nikos Christodoulides can pass legislation through the House of Representatives.
The centre-right alignment
A visible shift towards a two-pole system emerged during the campaign, splitting the landscape into the centre-right and the opposition. The central question remains how the equation within the centre-right camp will evolve, a dynamic that directly involves the Christodoulides government.
President Christodoulides has defined his administration as centre-right, rooted in social liberalism. He previously stated he wanted a centre-right majority in parliament to pass government bills. Christodoulides knows that without the backing of the Democratic Rally (DISY), government bills and reforms cannot pass. Conversely, DISY is bound to support government policies that align with its own platform.
Rumours are rife that Christodoulides will invite DISY leader Annita Demetriou to join the government after the election. Public rhetoric between the two sides has softened, showing absolute alignment on core policy areas like the economy, stability, defence, and foreign policy.
A critical period begins tonight. DISY insiders say the prospect of government cooperation helped rally party supporters during the campaign. However, next steps depend heavily on tonight’s percentages and the upcoming negotiations for the presidency of the parliament.
There is a strong push within DISY to strengthen ties with the government to heal internal party rifts, but this requires overturning a 2023 party conference decision to remain in opposition.
The 2028 presidential race also looms large. Some within DISY back supporting Christodoulides in 2028 in exchange for his backing in 2033, a scenario that suits the 40-year-old Demetriou. The presidency of the parliament remains the key; Demetriou wants to stay in the post to build political capital, and high-level DISY sources hint she might bypass the 2028 race if she retains the seat, sending an indirect message to Christodoulides to support her behind the scenes. However, other DISY figures want the 2028 presidential nomination, while another faction believes Demetriou should run in 2028 to capitalised on her popularity.
DIKO’s battle for survival
For the Democratic Party (DIKO), this election is a battle for survival. Securing a double-digit result, or something close to it, will prevent internal turmoil and end any talk of leaving the government coalition. A poor result, however, will spark fierce internal debate about DIKO’s future and its stance toward the Christodoulides administration.
While parliamentary cooperation with DISY is considered a given, DIKO’s position toward the government remains open. The party could back Demetriou for parliament speaker, but the price remains unclear. Some wonder if DISY would back DIKO leader Nicolas Papadopoulos for parliament speaker in exchange for backing Demetriou for president in 2028, or if the two parties could back a joint candidate like Constantinos Yiorkadjis.
Any such deal requires DIKO to leave the government, which is a tough sell for party leadership since Christodoulides retains strong support within DIKO. Papadopoulos remains a compromise candidate for parliament speaker if Demetriou cannot secure the votes, though this would complicate cooperation between DISY and the government.
ELAM as the kingmaker
The National People’s Front (ELAM) is set to act as a kingmaker, expected to emerge as the main winner among the older parties with a significant boost in its percentages. However, this momentum appears to hit a ceiling, largely because its growth relies on disgruntled DISY voters.
ELAM’s track record in parliament means it cannot be viewed as a stable partner for government bills, particularly on the economy. Consequently, Christodoulides maintains a safe distance to balance relations with DISY.
Nevertheless, ELAM holds the key to the presidency of the parliament. Its leader has repeatedly stated the party will not vote for Demetriou, and reports indicate ELAM will field its own candidate in the first round.
AKEL leads the opposition
On the left, the Progressive Party of Working People (AKEL) aims to protect its role as the primary opposition force. To do so, it must maintain its percentages and hold a clear lead over potential partners. AKEL wants an opposition axis that includes Volt and the Green Party to secure a parliamentary majority, with AKEL acting as the main pillar.
A recent public clash with Odysseas Michaelides played into AKEL’s hands, leading Michaelides to back down and express readiness to support an AKEL candidate for parliament speaker. AKEL has not confirmed if it will field its own candidate, but the updated voting system for the position favours large parties. Alternatively, the party could look toward Volt and Alexandra Attalides.
An AKEL move toward DIKO to disrupt its cooperation with the government and DISY is being discussed in some circles, but is highly unlikely to find traction with DIKO or be politically manageable for AKEL leadership.
Meanwhile, Michaelides’s ALMA movement has suggested Irene Charalambidou as a strong choice for parliament speaker. AKEL is highly unlikely to back this option in the first round, though party officials are moving to prevent deadlocks in the final round. A cooperation deal between AKEL and ALMA for the parliament presidency remains possible, but this does not guarantee AKEL support for Michaelides in the 2028 presidential race. Tonight’s final percentage for ALMA will largely dictate its leverage.
The unpredictable ‘ there is ‘ factor
The most unpredictable element remains Idiatiki Dimokratia (Direct Democracy), the party founded by MEP Fidias Panayiotou. The party reflects Panayiotou’s erratic political positioning, which shifts between nationalist, conservative, far-left, pro-Russian, and anti-national rhetoric.
Its performance tonight is uncertain, as public support has waned following Panayiotou’s behaviour and candidate choices. Nonetheless, the party is expected to win enough votes to enter parliament. Its MPs do not form a homogenous group, and reports suggest some plan to act independently if elected.
It is unclear if the party will join the opposition axis. Speculation includes a scenario where the party supports Demetriou for parliament speaker following mediation by former DISY leader Averof Neofytou, whom Panayiotou says he consults. Another scenario sees the party voting for Irene Charalambidou to force her into the final round, compelling AKEL to support her.
