Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for US-Israeli strikes, cutting off a waterway that normally carries about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies and triggering fears of a global energy crisis.
Traffic through the strait has fallen by 97% since the US-Israeli war against Iran began on 28 February, according to United Nations data.
Why now?
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard commanders had threatened to close the strait for decades, most notably during nuclear tensions in 2016 and 2018 and during strikes on Iran last June. Analysts had long regarded such a closure as a measure of last resort, given the long-term strategic consequences and the risk of retaliation against Iran’s own energy sector.
The US-Israeli assault beginning on 28 February, which killed Iran’s supreme leader on the first day, changed that calculation. Iranian officials have described the war as existential, with the Revolutionary Guards increasingly directing strategy.
What is at stake?
The strait is the only sea exit for the oil and gas exports of Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Oil prices briefly climbed to their highest level since 2022 earlier this week. The United Nations has warned that sustained high prices could trigger a cost-of-living crisis similar to that which followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
A prolonged conflict could also cause a fertiliser shock that threatens global food security. Around 33% of the world’s fertilisers, including sulphur and ammonia, pass through the strait, according to analytics firm Kpler. An extended war could fuel fears of a global economic crisis comparable to the Middle East oil shocks of the 1970s.
Why is it so hard to secure?
The shipping lanes through the strait are just two nautical miles wide, and vessels must navigate past Iranian islands and a mountainous coastline that provides cover for Iranian forces. While Iran’s conventional navy has largely been destroyed, the Revolutionary Guards retain fast attack craft, mini-submarines, mines and drone capabilities. Iran is estimated to produce around 10,000 drones per month, according to the Centre for Information Resilience.
Retired Royal Navy commander Tom Sharpe said escorting three or four ships a day through the strait would be feasible in the short term using seven or eight destroyers providing air cover, but sustaining such an operation for months would require significantly more resources. Even if Iran’s ballistic missile and drone capacity were neutralised, ships would still face threats from suicide operations, according to Adel Bakawan, director of the European Institute for Middle East and North African Studies.
What are world powers doing?
US President Donald Trump said on 3 March that the United States would provide protection for oil tankers through the strait and ordered the US Development Finance Corporation to provide insurance and guarantees for shipping companies. However, attacks have continued and very little traffic is getting through.
French President Emmanuel Macron said several European countries, India and other Asian states were planning a joint protection mission, though he said such an operation could only begin once the conflict ends. France is deploying around a dozen naval vessels, including its aircraft carrier strike group, to the eastern Mediterranean, Red Sea and potentially the strait itself. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has spoken to the German and Italian leaders about options to support commercial shipping.
Are there alternatives?
The UAE and Saudi Arabia have sought to develop pipeline routes bypassing the strait, but these are not currently operational. A Houthi attack on an east-west Saudi pipeline in 2019 also demonstrated that such alternatives remain vulnerable.
The precedent from the Red Sea offers little comfort. Yemen’s Houthis, with far fewer military resources than Iran, managed to shut down most Red Sea traffic for more than two years despite a US and EU-led naval protection operation, forcing most shipping companies onto the longer route around the southern tip of Africa.
(Reuters)
Read more:
