Cyprus finds itself at the centre of a widening regional conflict, but the chances of it escalating into a world war remain minimal, international relations analyst Charalambos Chrysostomou told philenews.
The conflict, which has been under way since 28 February, has turned the entire Middle East into a theatre of war — but Chrysostomou said it falls well short of the threshold for a global conflict.
For a war to be considered a world war, he explained, it must involve fighting across more than two continents and draw in most of the planet’s major powers.
Of the countries currently involved, only the United States qualifies as a major power. Israel and Iran are both regional powers.
For the conflict to go global, at least one of Russia or China would need to actively join the fighting, and a new front would have to open on another continent — a scenario Chrysostomou described as clearly remote.
Russia is tied down in Ukraine, while China’s actions and statements show no intention of active military involvement on Iran’s side, despite Beijing condemning US and Israeli operations against Tehran.
The preventive military presence of European powers in Cyprus does not amount to participation in the war, he stressed. For the regional conflict to acquire a global character, those countries would need to become part of the fighting — which is not currently the case.
He also noted that world wars, as seen in both the First and Second, have always featured two clearly defined opposing camps. Iran today is fighting alone, alongside its proxies in the region.
The economic war is already global
While the prospect of a world war remains remote, Chrysostomou warned that the economic dimension of the conflict is already playing out on a global scale.
Oil installations are being targeted and the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for several days, with consequences felt far beyond the region.
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