By Andreas Bimbishis, Frixos Dalitis
Cyprus’s two largest parties are running virtually level ahead of the 24 May parliamentary elections, with DISY holding a paper-thin lead over AKEL and ELAM firmly in third place, according to the first major Phileleftheros poll conducted by Greek research firm Explorer.
DISY leads on 17.1% against AKEL’s 16.7%, a gap well within the poll’s margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points. ELAM follows in third on 11.4%, with newcomer ALMA fourth on 9.3%. DIKO is fifth on 6.8%, fractionally ahead of Direct Democracy on 6.7%.
Further back, EDEK and Volt each register 2%, while DEPA and the Movement of Ecologists are both on 1%. Some 13% of respondents remain undecided and 5% declined to answer.
Based on these figures, six parties appear on course to enter parliament: DISY, AKEL, ELAM, ALMA, DIKO and Direct Democracy. However, the pollsters caution that EDEK, Volt, DEPA and the Movement of Ecologists cannot be ruled out.
Consolidation is the key battleground
Party loyalty figures reveal a significant vulnerability for the established parties. AKEL leads on consolidation at 68%, with ELAM close behind on 66%. DISY, by contrast, stands at just 57%, while DIKO is on 44%, EDEK 45%, the Movement of Ecologists 25% and DEPA 20%.
The poll identifies DISY’s consolidation deficit as the single biggest variable in the race. If DISY recovers its traditional voters before polling day, it would directly squeeze ELAM and ALMA, both of which are drawing heavily from former DISY supporters. The analysis shows 15% of 2021 DISY voters currently saying they will back ELAM, with a further 10% switching to ALMA and 11% undecided.
AKEL’s high consolidation rate has a double edge, the poll notes. On one hand, the party has largely secured its base. On the other, it may have limited room to grow further.
DIKO faces the most acute consolidation challenge. Its 44% figure is low, but 24% of its 2021 voters say they have not yet decided — rather than definitively switching elsewhere — leaving open the possibility of a late rally. That matters enormously for DIKO: it needs to clear 7.2% to qualify for the third round of seat distribution.
Where the votes are coming from
ALMA is drawing its support predominantly from former DISY voters (24% of its current backers), followed by people who did not vote in 2021 (18%). Direct Democracy draws its largest share from non-voters (25%), followed by former ELAM voters (19%) and former AKEL voters (15%).
Both ALMA and Direct Democracy are therefore heavily reliant on first-time or previously abstaining voters turning out on election day. Higher turnout would benefit both parties; low turnout could prove damaging.
ELAM is haemorrhaging more voters to Direct Democracy than any other party — 18% of its 2021 supporters now say they will back Fidias Panayiotou’s party. AKEL is also leaking 7% of its 2021 voters to Direct Democracy.
The poll was conducted between 17 and 25 February, a period that already reflected the fallout from Irene Charalambidou’s break with AKEL and her subsequent alignment with Odysseas Michailides’s ALMA, as well as the court ruling in the Syllouris-Giovanis case.
Both developments are noted as having created conditions that favour parties focused on anti-corruption themes — primarily ALMA — and those attracting protest votes, principally Direct Democracy.
Punishing the party
Voter dissatisfaction is highest among DIKO supporters, 68% of whom say they are not satisfied or not very satisfied with the party. DISY follows on 53%, ELAM on 48% and AKEL on 39%.
Of those dissatisfied DISY voters, 33% say they intend to punish the party at the ballot box — the same figure as for AKEL. Among dissatisfied DIKO voters the figure is 36%, while for ELAM it is 27%.
On expectations of who will finish first regardless of personal voting intention, DISY commands a clear lead: 59% of respondents predict it will come first, against 19% for AKEL.
What voters want
The economy tops the list of issues on which voters want to see substantive proposals from the new parliament, cited by 40% of respondents, followed by immigration (35%), education and health (both 30%), cost of living (26%) and housing (12%).
When asked what will drive their actual vote choice, the economy again leads on 36%, followed by the Cyprus problem (26%), immigration (24%), cost of living (21%), specific candidates (16%), education (16%) and housing (8%).
Candidates and personalities are a decisive factor: 41% say they will vote for specific individuals rather than a party. Some 26% say they will vote to reward a party, 26% out of loyalty, 11% to punish a party and 19% as a protest against the party system as a whole.
Poll details
The survey was conducted by Explorer between 17 and 25 February 2026, with 1,004 completed interviews drawn from an island-wide random stratified sample.
Interviews were conducted by telephone (CATI method) with respondents aged 18 and over.
The margin of error is +/-3.1% at a 95% confidence level. The sample was not weighted. Explorer is a member of ESOMAR.
