After a prolonged period where the Cyprus issue was relatively low-key or even absent from the political agenda, the coming weeks are expected to bring increased activity, both in Cyprus and New York.
Apart from the anticipated announcement of the envoy’s appointment in the next few days, special attention will be given to the two reports of the UN Secretary-General on UNFICYP (concerning Pyla and Ayios Dometios) and on Good Offices (where the intentions of the international organization are expected to be clarified).
Nicosia expects the official announcement of the appointment of Maria Angela Holguin Cuellar within the next 24 hours.
It is known that the duties of the new UN envoy will commence on January 1st.
Following this, it is estimated that shortly afterward, she will engage with both sides, as well as all relevant parties, to plan her first visit to the island and the capitals of the three guarantors.
Maria Angela Holguin Cuellar’s first trip might be scheduled after her initial meeting with Colin Stewart when he visits New York in early January.
The UN Special Representative in Cyprus is expected to have meetings with both sides in the first week of January to discuss developments before departing for New York.
Within the first ten days of January, both reports of the UN Secretary-General to the Security Council will be ready: the report on the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) and the report on Good Offices in Cyprus.
Both reports are of significant importance, considering various events that have transpired within the buffer zone in the last six months.
The content of the report regarding events in Pyla and Ayios Dometios is eagerly awaited.
Regarding Pyla, the Security Council’s position has already been recorded. However, how subsequent developments will be documented remains an open question, given that all projects in the area have now come to a halt.
Despite repeated assurances from the United Nations, no change has been observed on the ground.
Regarding Ayios Dometios and the movements of the Turkish side, attention is focused on how events will be recorded and formulated by the United Nations.
Concerning Cyprus, aside from the envoy’s appointment, attention is directed to two points: firstly, what the UN Secretary-General will specifically mention and how he intends to proceed in the coming period, and secondly, the position of the Security Council itself through the resolution that will be adopted at the end of the month.
Nicosia is on alert for both the reports to the Security Council and the ensuing discussions.
Of particular concern is the content of the resolution that will be prepared by the British and presented to the body for adoption.
Typically, potential pitfalls are hidden in the details, and efforts will be made to address controversial references in a timely manner.
In procedural terms, in early January (most likely within the first ten days), the two reports of the UN Secretary-General concerning the renewal of UNFICYP and the recommendation for the renewal of the peacekeeping force’s term for another year will be ready.
Colin Stewart will be in New York to inform the Security Council about the developments.
After the submission of the reports, the draft resolution for the renewal of UNFICYP’s term will be prepared.
As known, the resolution is prepared by the UK and will then be presented to the five permanent members of the Security Council for further discussion in mid-January.
Discussion of the draft resolution will follow at the Security Council’s plenary level, involving all 15 members of the body.
It is estimated that the resolution renewing the term of UNFICYP will be adopted by the end of January.
