Rainfall in December and January is forecast to be below normal across most of the Mediterranean, including the region around Cyprus, according to the latest seasonal forecast analysed by Kitas Weather.
The two months are on average the wettest in Cyprus, with mean rainfall of 105.6 millimetres in December and 102.4 millimetres in January. The forecast comes from the EFFIS system, which is based on the seasonal forecast of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
In the first ten days of November, 20 per cent of the month’s rainfall has fallen. Kitas Weather’s forecast published on Monday shows no organised weather system over the region until 20 November apart from isolated weather events, so the figure is not expected to change significantly before then.
If the seasonal forecast proves accurate, the rest of November’s rainfall would have to fall in the final ten days of the month, which Kitas Weather said was difficult but not impossible.
The November forecast has changed since it was presented about a month and a half ago, when it showed above-normal rainfall across the whole island. It now points to normal rainfall, or slightly below normal in the south, with a chance of slightly above-normal rainfall in the north. Average November rainfall in Cyprus is 53.3 millimetres.
Kitas Weather said seasonal forecasts are not reliable predictions and can deviate significantly in either direction, and that the data may change at the next update, which it will publish in early December.
The seasonal forecast for October, which showed rainfall well above normal for Cyprus and the wider Mediterranean and Middle East, proved accurate. Average rainfall across the island totalled 84.0 millimetres, 257 per cent of the October average of 32.7.
