Millions of Americans are voting on Tuesday in midterm elections that will decide the balance of power in Congress and are expected to largely determine how much room President Donald Trump has to push his agenda in the last two years of his term.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are up for grabs. The first results are due from about 1am Cyprus time on Wednesday, though some of the tightest races may take days to call.
Trump is not on the ballot, but the vote is a significant political test for the White House. Losing control of even one chamber could upset the balance of power in Washington and make it harder for the administration to deliver its agenda.
Control of the House would allow the Democrats to set committee agendas and step up congressional oversight of the administration. Winning the Senate as well would also let them block the confirmation of presidential appointments. Trump would keep his veto and the executive powers of the presidency.
Asked about the prospect of Democrats regaining control of Congress, Trump said he would be willing to issue pre-emptive pardons to associates and allies if he needed to protect them from possible prosecution. He made the remarks in an interview with Miranda Devine on the ‘Pod Force One’ podcast, published on Monday.
Key Senate races
A New York Times and Siena Research Institute poll published on Sunday showed Democratic candidates ahead in several key Senate races.
In Texas, James Talarico had 50 per cent against 43 per cent for Ken Paxton. In Maine, Troy Jackson led Susan Collins by 51 per cent to 45 per cent, while in Ohio Sherrod Brown had 49 per cent against 44 per cent for Jon Husted. In Kansas, Adam Hamilton led Roger Marshall by 49 per cent to 44 per cent.
The gaps were narrower in Iowa, where Josh Turek had 48 per cent and Ashley Hinson 47 per cent, and in Alaska, where Mary Peltola had 48 per cent and Dan Sullivan 46 per cent. The poll measures voting intention rather than predicting the outcome, and its margins of error vary from state to state.
In Michigan, the final stretch of the campaign was marked by Democratic congresswoman Haley Stevens’s decision to back Republican Mike Rogers against Abdul El-Sayed, who defeated her in the party primary. Reuters reported that the move opened a rift among Democrats in a race seen as crucial to the battle for control of the Senate.
More than 52 million Americans had already voted by Sunday 1 November, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab. The figure reflects the count on that day and is not a final tally of early turnout.
When polls close
Polling stations opened between 6am and 7am local time, depending on the state, and close in line with each state’s time zone. Most results are expected overnight into Wednesday 4 November.
The first polling stations to close are in Indiana and Kentucky, at 1am Cyprus time, followed by Georgia at 2am and North Carolina and Ohio at 2.30am.
At 3am Cyprus time, polls close in Pennsylvania, Maine and most of Michigan, as well as most of Texas and, as a rule, Kansas, where some local exceptions apply.
Parts of Michigan and Texas in the next time zone west close at 4am Cyprus time, as do Iowa, Wisconsin, Arizona and New York. Nevada follows at 5am. In California, voting runs from 7am to 8pm local time, or from 5pm on Tuesday to 6am on Wednesday Cyprus time. The last polls close in Alaska at 8am on Wednesday Cyprus time.
Why early results can mislead
Early results need to be read with care. Republicans have historically voted by post less than Democrats, so in some states the first counts may show Republican candidates ahead, only for the gap to narrow or even reverse as postal votes are added later. The effect is known as the ‘red mirage’.
In states that count postal votes first, the opposite can happen. A slow count, or a change in which candidate leads during the night, is not in itself a sign of electoral fraud.
Counting and runoffs
Results announced on election night are provisional. The final count can take days or even weeks, as election officials must count postal votes, provisional ballots and any other outstanding votes before formally certifying the result. The speed of the process varies widely from state to state.
Some races may run longer still. In Georgia, a Senate runoff will be held on 1 December if no candidate wins the required majority. In Louisiana, if no winner emerges, the top two candidates go through to a second round on 12 December.
The new Congress will be sworn in on 3 January.
(information from protothema.gr)
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