Brazilians vote on Sunday in the first round of a closely fought presidential election dominated by corruption scandals, economic anxiety and accusations of US interference.
Left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, is seeking a fourth term, while Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, is trying to return the right-wing movement built by his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, to power.
If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes, the two leading contenders will meet in a runoff on 25 October. Polls cited in the source show Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro running roughly level in a potential second round.
A Bolsonaro victory would extend a series of recent wins by right-wing candidates in Latin America aligned with US President Donald Trump, while another Lula term could deepen tensions between Brasília and Washington over trade and security.
Other candidates, including former state governors Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema, have struggled to gain momentum in a heavily polarised race. Polling cited in the source also shows both Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro facing rejection from around half of voters.
Flavio Bolsonaro has pledged to seek an amnesty for his father, who is serving a prison sentence of more than 27 years for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election.
Lula, meanwhile, has framed the election as a choice between “democracy and denialism” and repeatedly warned against foreign interference.
Trump looms over the campaign
The fallout from Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction has shaped much of the election campaign.
Trump, who described the case against the former president as a “witch hunt”, imposed a 50% tariff on Brazil in 2025 and explicitly linked the measure to Bolsonaro’s trial after lobbying by members of the Bolsonaro family.
This year, Trump imposed further tariffs over what Washington described as unfair trade practices.
Lula has portrayed the measures as an attempt to influence the election and accused the Bolsonaro family of being too willing to accommodate Washington at Brazil’s expense.
His allies have also raised concerns that the Trump administration might refuse to recognise the election result if Lula wins.
According to the source, they point to an unsuccessful attempt by US officials to travel to Brazil to “discuss electoral integrity”, while Reuters also reported that Brazilian intelligence officials briefed French and German representatives on alleged US and Russian interference before the vote.
The United States has rejected allegations that it is interfering in Brazil’s internal affairs.
Trump has not formally endorsed a candidate, although he hosted Flavio Bolsonaro at the White House and has praised him publicly.
The senator has promised closer ties with the United States and Israel and supported Washington’s designation of Brazil’s major criminal gangs as terrorist organisations, a move rejected by Lula.
Brazil’s large reserves of critical minerals are another strategic issue in the relationship, as Washington seeks to reduce its dependence on China for key raw materials.
Economy weighs on voters
Despite falling unemployment and inequality, Lula has struggled to overcome voter concerns over the cost of living, high household debt, crime and the growing influence of gangs.
Flavio Bolsonaro has sought to capitalise on those concerns, while Lula has moved to ban online gambling and, as the race tightened, expanded welfare programmes and proposed further debt relief for families.
Brazil’s rising public spending and debt, now above 82% of gross domestic product, have added to concerns over the state of the public finances.
The government has cut its growth forecasts to 2.0% this year and 2.3% next year.
“Lula would likely preserve a state-led model with only modest spending restraint; Bolsonaro would likely pursue a more market-friendly agenda centred on spending cuts, privatisations, concessions, and a stronger fiscal anchor,” said Alberto Ramos, chief Latin America economist at Goldman Sachs.
Corruption scandals overshadow policy debate
Policy has often been overshadowed by a corruption scandal centred on the now-defunct Banco Master.
Daniel Vorcaro, who ran the bank, was arrested earlier this year and accused of involvement in a multibillion-dollar fraud scheme.
The investigation has examined his links with figures ranging from Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes to Flavio Bolsonaro.
Federal police are investigating the senator for alleged money laundering linked to the case. Bolsonaro denies wrongdoing, although he has confirmed raising millions of dollars from Vorcaro for a film about his father.
Vorcaro’s links to Moraes, who is regarded by many Bolsonaro supporters as aligned with Lula, have also put the Supreme Court under pressure in the run-up to the election.
Moraes has said the case against him is politically and electorally motivated because of his role in convicting Jair Bolsonaro.
Lula has meanwhile sought to distance himself from a separate federal police investigation into his son over alleged influence peddling. His son denies the allegations.
Congress also at stake
Voters will also elect all 513 members of the lower house and two-thirds of the Senate on Sunday.
The congressional contests carry added significance because Brazil’s legislature has accumulated greater political influence since the 2016 impeachment of former president Dilma Rousseff, a Lula ally.
Some lawmakers have also pushed for the impeachment of Moraes, adding another layer of political tension to the legislative races.
