The occupying power is actively laying the groundwork for its “Plan B” in the Cyprus problem while maintaining a facade of tolerance toward United Nations initiatives. Utilizing a dual-track approach, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently encouraged UN Secretary-General António Guterres to pursue his initiatives and convene a new informal five-party conference on Cyprus.
Simultaneously, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has worked to brake or complicate these very efforts. Ankara does not operate with two separate centers of power; rather, a single line is dictated by the Turkish president. Erdogan, aware that Guterres maintained open communication with European Council President Antonio Costa, encouraged the UN chief while simultaneously eyeing broader EU-Turkey relations.
Hakan Fidan, specializing in high-stakes strategic missions dating back to his tenure leading Turkey’s MIT intelligence agency, was deployed to leverage the Secretary-General’s final initiative to activate Ankara’s “Plan B.” This alternative blueprint aims to upgrade the breakaway entity through the engineered failure of the upcoming diplomatic process, ensuring that even if an informal five-party conference takes place, it is designed to stall.
Secretary-General Guterres’s recent decision to exclude a joint meeting between President Nikos Christodoulides and Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhurman from his immediate agenda unintentionally facilitates these Turkish designs. The persistent narrative regarding a lack of “common ground” fosters a gradual departure from established UN resolutions and the agreed negotiating framework.
Diplomatic reports indicate that Ankara views the “Taiwanization” model—establishing an unrecognized de facto state integrated structurally, economically, and legally with Turkey while expanding independent trade, tourism, and diplomatic links—as an increasingly attainable objective. By eroding the foundational parameters of a bizonal, bicommunal federation, Turkey seeks to corner international actors into accepting a permanent two-state reality.
Meanwhile, Nicosia continues to press for constructive engagement, presenting fresh ideas right up to the eve of the UN General Assembly to unlock the peace process. President Christodoulides maintains that any viable solution must strictly adhere to UN parameters, warning international bodies against yielding to tactical maneuvers designed to legitimize partition.
