Time is working against the prospect of reunification if the political and social alienation of Turkish Cypriots from European institutions and from the Republic of Cyprus itself continues, a former defence minister warned at a public forum in Nicosia last week.
Christoforos Fokaides, former Defence Minister and President of the Institute for Policy and Democracy Studies, made the warning at a discussion organised by OPEK and the PRIO Cyprus Centre on May 7, which examined what a European defence union would mean for Cyprus.
Fokaides argued that a stronger European defence dimension could benefit a small state that continues to experience occupation and division, but said Turkish Cypriots cannot be excluded from any discussion on the island’s future security. He called for a new narrative of “a united Cyprus” and said Cyprus needs a comprehensive strategy linking European security with the prospect of a solution to the Cyprus problem.
He assessed that the most likely outcome is not a unified European army but a multi-layered security architecture built on “coalitions of the willing” or a “Schengen of defence,” closely tied to NATO.
Academic and former AKEL MEP Niyazi Kizilyurek argued that Turkey’s strategic importance has shaped the Cyprus issue since the 1950s and that this has not changed. “We cannot ignore Turkey’s geopolitical significance,” he said, warning that those who believe a future European defence policy will automatically work in Cyprus’s favour against Turkey are misjudging the real balance of power in Europe.
Kizilyurek also raised concern about the growing strategic alignment between Cyprus and Israel, arguing that the escalating Turkey-Israel confrontation risks spilling over into Cyprus and further complicating prospects for a solution.
He accused both Turkey and the Republic of Cyprus of obstructing, for different reasons, the integration of Turkish Cypriots into European structures, warning that the Turkish Cypriot community risks gradually losing its status as an autonomous political entity.
PRIO Cyprus Centre Director Harry Tzimitras cautioned that Cyprus cannot approach security purely in military terms. “It’s not enough to arm ourselves to the teeth,” he said, noting that Cyprus is already one of the most militarised regions on the planet relative to its size and population.
Tzimitras also warned that the international order underpinning Cyprus’s foreign policy is weakening and that the UN’s role in the Cyprus issue is diminishing. He highlighted cooperation between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots on energy, the environment, the economy, and migration as a significant opportunity for confidence-building, even before a comprehensive solution is reached.
OPEK Secretary Michalis Beys, summarising the discussion, said there was broad agreement that new European defence discussions could act as a catalyst for the Cyprus issue, provided Cyprus works to integrate its own security into a broader European framework that incorporates rather than excludes Turkey. Beys added his personal view that Turkey now has incentives to make progress on the Cyprus issue, and that Ankara’s potential participation in European defence structures could serve as a lever for both pressure and negotiation.
The event was part of a project implemented by OPEK with the support of CARDET, co-funded by the European Union.
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