After a long period of complete stalemate on the Cyprus issue due to the Turkish side and Turkish Cypriot leadership’s stance, the meeting between Nikos Christodoulides and Tufan Erhürman represents a first step towards reviving dialogue.
What follows is preparation for substantive negotiations, which will take place on two levels, between the leaders and the negotiators.
The resumption of substantive talks remains the key objective for the Greek Cypriot side, which publicly and privately stresses the need for the sides to return to the negotiating table as soon as possible.
The Turkish Cypriot side also wants talks to resume, but improving the climate and agreeing on an agenda takes priority.
Neither social nor negotiation
After five years dominated by the Turkish Cypriot leadership’s stubborn refusal of meetings and dialogue, the meeting of the two leaders last Thursday at the residence of Khassim Diagne represents a first step towards restarting dialogue between the two leaders.
The meeting was divided into two phases. In the first part, the UN Secretary-General’s personal envoy, Maria Angela Holguin, joined from Lima, Peru, via videoconference.
The UN Secretary-General’s special representative, Khassim Diagne, was also present. In the second half of the meeting, the two leaders had a private meeting, during which they discussed most of the issues raised by each side.
What diplomatic and political circles note is that the first meeting of the President of the Republic with the Turkish Cypriot leader was not of a social nature, but at the same time it is clear that no negotiation took place.
Holguin, who will be in Cyprus on 4 December, made an introductory intervention expressing satisfaction at the first meeting of the leaders.
The UN Secretary-General’s envoy will meet Erhürman on 5 December and Christodoulides on 6 December. From what was said and relevant information, it appears that the following week the two leaders will have a new joint meeting, this time with Holguin’s participation.
Each leader put forward his own issues
President Christodoulides raised certain issues in both the joint and private meeting with the Turkish Cypriot leader and made suggestions that in his view could lead to the resumption of talks.
The Turkish Cypriot leader raised issues, including those he has publicly mentioned which include the checkpoints, prosecutions against those who appropriate Greek Cypriot properties in the occupied areas. Issues on which – as we are in a position to know – President Christodoulides gave answers.
Regarding Confidence Building Measures, references were made by both sides, they are considered by the two leaders as important, especially those on which promises were given to the UN Secretary-General.
Four positives and one objective
From the analysis that took place after the Christodoulides-Erhürman meeting, four positives are noted:
First, agreement on holding a joint meeting of the two leaders when the UN Secretary-General’s personal envoy is in Cyprus, after the separate meetings she will have with the two leaders on 5 and 6 December.
Second, the resumption of meetings between the two negotiators, Menelaos Menelaou from the Greek Cypriot side and Mehmet Dana from the Turkish Cypriot side, who will also prepare the Christodoulides-Erhürman-Holguin meeting.
Third, the UN Secretary-General’s personal envoy’s intention, immediately after her contacts in Nicosia, is to travel to Athens and Ankara for talks with the foreign ministers of Greece and Turkey.
Fourth, the EU envoy, Johannes Hahn, will come to Cyprus to hold meetings.
What remains the key objective for the Cyprus issue is the resumption of talks. For this reason:
The goal of the meetings that follow is considered to be to prepare for the expanded meeting on the part of the Secretary-General as was decided and announced after the New York meeting, that is, for the expanded meeting to take place before the end of the year.
Holguin will explore the issue of holding a new expanded meeting both with the Secretary-General and with the interested parties. On this, President Christodoulides expressed readiness to go to an expanded meeting before the end of the year and to work towards this direction.
The new multilateral meeting, according to what has been said throughout the previous period, will have as its main subject the restart of substantive negotiations and not a new discussion of procedural issues or issues concerning Confidence Building Measures.
Real prospects will emerge there
Last Thursday’s meeting and the joint meeting of the leaders with Holguin are significant if one takes into account that previously they could not take place.
The reactivation of the negotiators who will begin to prepare the meeting is also a significant development.
In the negotiators’ meetings, the direction in which the Turkish Cypriot side wants to move under Erhürman’s leadership will also become clearer. Because under Tatar no substantive discussion took place that could have given any result.
For the Greek Cypriot side it is sufficiently clear that these moves (negotiators’ meetings, trilateral with Holguin and informal multilateral) should function as a preparatory stage for the resumption of substantive talks on Cyprus.
What both President Christodoulides and his associates stress emphatically in private discussions as well as publicly is that any decision and any move must aim precisely at restarting talks.
Because, as is noted even by foreign circles, it is there in the talks and negotiations that the real prospects for achieving a Cyprus solution will emerge. Everyone will be judged there by the result and not by what they may state in the meantime to win public opinion to their side.
Both leaders showed that they consider the acquis of the negotiations as important. Showing that they want to move to the next phase of negotiation and not go back and open issues that have already been closed or agreed upon.
“Let’s write history”
The distance of eight years from the last substantive negotiation on Cyprus may be such as to force everyone to view with reservation the possibilities of returning to the negotiating table, however positive developments can emerge if both sides move towards the same goal.
In their first telephone communication, President Christodoulides, addressing Tufan Erhürman, told him that the two have an opportunity to write history.
To achieve this, they must take steps in the same direction and towards the same goal. At this moment, what is recorded is the difficulty of coordinating their steps and mainly that they do not seem to view the resumption of substantive negotiations through the same lens.
The positions of the two leaders on resuming talks
Nikos Christodoulides seeks resumption of talks from the point where they were interrupted at Crans-Montana, with respect for the acquis of negotiations and the agreed framework.
Tufan Erhürman demands pre-agreement on a four-point methodological framework before the start of comprehensive negotiations and wishes to go to a 5+1 meeting not empty-handed but with concrete progress.
The critical difference is summarised in that Christodoulides wants to discuss substance now, whilst Erhürman wants first to agree on methodology and then begin substantive negotiations.
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