The national health system (GHS) will see a slight decline in reserves over the next two years due to costly innovative drugs and overseas treatment costs, but will maintain strong financial stability through 2032, according to an updated actuarial study.
The system’s reserves are projected to decrease from €647 million in 2024 to €635 million in 2025 and €620 million in 2026, before beginning to rise again from 2027, reaching €825 million by 2032.
The study, conducted by the International Labour Organisation, indicates that innovative treatments and specialised drugs will cost €89.4 million in 2025, while named patient requests could reach €40 million, rising to €76 million by 2032.
The integration of overseas patient treatment programmes will add another €30 million to GHS’s budget.
Despite these additional costs, the system will maintain sufficient reserves to cover three months of operations without income throughout the period. By 2032, this coverage will extend to over four months.
The study also projects demographic changes, with beneficiaries increasing from current 972,659 to over 1 million by 2032.
Notably, the proportion of beneficiaries over 65 will rise from 18% to 21% during this period, while working-age adults (18-64) will decrease from 64% to 61%.
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