Cyprus needs an estimated €3.4 billion in climate adaptation investments by 2050 but less than 30% of these necessary measures are currently planned, according to research published by the Cyprus Institute.
The study warns that while the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region is warming faster than the global average, only about €950 million in adaptation projects are currently budgeted.
“Both pillars of climate policy – mitigation through emissions reduction and adaptation to already ongoing change – are essential for prosperity, social cohesion and fiscal sustainability in Cyprus,” the policy brief states.
The research, led by Professor Theodoros Zachariadis, estimates that without adaptation measures, the economic impact of unmitigated climate change could reach €13.3 billion by 2050 at today’s prices.
According to the findings, approximately 63% of necessary adaptation investments relate to energy efficiency renovations of buildings. These renovations would simultaneously address climate mitigation goals while reducing energy poverty and dependence on fuel imports.
The study identifies critical gaps in adaptation planning, including insufficient protection of coastal infrastructure from rising sea levels, inadequate electrical grid resilience against heat waves, and underdeveloped monitoring systems for heat-related public health issues.
Over 70% of the required €3.4 billion investment – approximately €2.5 billion – would need to come from public funds for infrastructure protection and upgrades, as well as grants to individuals and enterprises.
The researchers note their estimates are conservative, as they exclude potential non-linear impacts if ecosystem tipping points are passed, increasingly frequent severe weather events, chain effects from climate disasters, and difficult-to-quantify impacts such as biodiversity loss.
“Unless serious adaptation measures are taken now – at least those foreseen in the National Adaptation Strategy – public expenditures for infrastructure reinforcement and rehabilitation and for natural disaster compensations could derail public spending,” the report warns.
Cyprus is expected to be among the European countries facing the most severe climate impacts on vulnerable households, according to recent pan-European research cited in the study.
Climate change would particularly affect household expenditure on food, electricity and health services, with negative effects on labour productivity and possibly gradual loss in property values.
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