Nikos Christodoulides, Averof Neophytou or Giorgos Pamboridis, Andreas Mavroyiannis or Christos Yiasemides, Stefanos Stefanou or someone else entirely. And surrounding them are the various unknown quantities who could enter the 2028 presidential race.
The political landscape may remain highly fluid until the election, but the contest is already taking shape around three main candidates.
One is the incumbent president. Another will have the backing of the Democratic Rally (DISY), while the third will be supported by AKEL. Other candidates will inevitably emerge around them, potentially influencing the fortunes of all three.
It would, however, be a major surprise if anyone outside this triangle managed to break through, mount a serious challenge for a place in the second round and ultimately win the presidency, completely overturning the political landscape.
Where the potential candidates stand
Nikos Christodoulides has yet to announce whether he will seek re-election, but he is widely expected to be one of the three central figures in the presidential contest.
His path towards the ballot box will shape the balance of power across the political spectrum, not only on the right but also within the left.
That makes the two opinion polls published over the past month particularly interesting, both for what they reveal about the current political landscape and how it might develop.
The two recent polls highlight two central questions concerning Christodoulides.
First: How much support does Christodoulides command among DISY voters, and what proportion of the party’s electorate is prepared to back him?
Second: How much electoral strength does the incumbent retain across the various scenarios, despite the damage to his popularity?
There is another way to read the second finding. Christodoulides is polling below his levels in the 2023 presidential election, while Andreas Mavroyiannis and Averof Neophytou are polling considerably higher than they did at the start of the previous presidential campaign.
That difference could prove important if the 2028 contest develops along similar lines to 2023, although it does not necessarily tell us anything about the eventual outcome.
An opinion poll conducted by RAI Consultants for ALPHA television examined several possible presidential election scenarios. Christodoulides finished first in every first-round scenario, securing a place in the run-off.
Notably, the poll also examined what would happen if DIKO leader Nicolas Papadopoulos entered the race, alongside separate candidacies by ELAM leader Christos Christou and Odysseas Michaelides of ALMA.
Each of those three possible candidacies would have a different impact on the leading contenders.
Christodoulides also appeared to win every potential second-round contest examined, whether facing Mavroyiannis or Neophytou.
Scenario 1: Nikos Christodoulides 28%, Andreas Mavroyiannis 22%, Averof Neophytou 20%, Odysseas Michaelides 9% and Christos Christou 6%. Blank or invalid ballots account for 5%, abstention 2%, undecided voters 6% and no response 1%.
Scenario 2: Nikos Christodoulides 27%, Andreas Mavroyiannis 23%, Averof Neophytou 19%, Odysseas Michaelides 9%, Christos Christou 6% and John Christodoulou 4%. Blank or invalid ballots account for 4%, abstention 3%, undecided voters 6% and no response 1%.
This scenario adds John Christodoulou to the presidential equation, giving him 4% of the vote. At the same time, both Christodoulides and Neophytou lose one percentage point compared with the first scenario.
Scenario 3: Nikos Christodoulides 30%, Andreas Mavroyiannis 24%, Odysseas Michaelides 11%, Giorgos Pamboridis 9% and Christos Christou 9%.
Here, Pamboridis replaces Neophytou as the potential DISY candidate but attracts just 9%.
One possible explanation is that DISY’s internal selection process is still under way, with Neophytou supporters choosing someone other than Pamboridis because of the rivalry between the two camps.
Alternatively, Pamboridis may simply have failed, at least for now, to generate the electoral momentum he would like.
One of the central arguments of his campaign is that he can win because he can reach the second round, unlike Neophytou, who already contested the 2023 election. Pamboridis has warned that selecting his rival would risk repeating that outcome.
Scenario 4: Nikos Christodoulides 26%, Andreas Mavroyiannis 23%, Averof Neophytou 19%, Odysseas Michaelides 7%, Christos Christou 6% and Nicolas Papadopoulos 5%. Blank or invalid ballots account for 4%, abstention 3%, undecided voters 6% and no response 1%.
This scenario is particularly interesting because Papadopoulos and Christou are two candidates who, at least in theory, would draw support from the same pool of voters as Christodoulides.
Papadopoulos leads DIKO, the largest party supporting the government, while Christou heads ELAM, which maintains a distinctive relationship with the Christodoulides administration despite officially being in opposition.
Yet even under these circumstances, Christodoulides holds on to first place.
Of course, this is only a hypothetical scenario. In a real election, the damage to his vote could be greater.
But the findings also send a message to Papadopoulos in particular, and then to Christou: as presidential candidates, both attract considerably less support than their parties received in the parliamentary elections.
What the Phileleftheros poll revealed
The Phileleftheros poll published on Friday, 30 October, also produced particularly interesting findings, including how DISY voters view Christodoulides.
The survey focused exclusively on the DISY electorate and found that roughly half of its supporters hold a positive opinion of the president.
Asked what they thought of Christodoulides, 14% responded very positively and 35% positively, giving a combined favourable rating of 49%.
By contrast, 11% expressed a very negative opinion and 29% a negative one, bringing his total unfavourable rating to 40%.
That is a substantial proportion of negative views, but it remains lower than the positive figure.
And these responses come from supporters of an opposition party that is currently choosing its own presidential candidate.
The findings reinforce a pattern identified in earlier surveys: Christodoulides appears capable of attracting support equivalent to roughly one-third of DISY’s electoral strength.
One-third of the 27.1% DISY secured in the parliamentary elections amounts to approximately nine percentage points of the overall vote.
Averof Neophytou or Giorgos Pamboridis?
Whoever wins DISY’s presidential nomination will automatically become one of the three main contenders in the 2028 election.
Neophytou and Pamboridis bring very different strengths and weaknesses to the contest.
They do, however, share one crucial advantage: whichever wins will carry the backing of DISY and its substantial pool of voters into a presidential race in which the first round is likely to be the decisive hurdle.
Win that battle, and the path to the presidency opens up.
But whoever becomes the party’s candidate will also inherit the wounds left by DISY’s continuing internal divisions.
Four factors stand out.
First: The party’s candidate selection process is still under way.
Two published polls, the Phileleftheros survey conducted by Greek polling company EXPLORER and this week’s RAI poll for ALPHA, show Neophytou with a clear lead, although Pamboridis remains in contention.
The final outcome will depend heavily on turnout among party members.
For now, Neophytou appears to have greater momentum across all districts of Cyprus, while Pamboridis’s strongest territory is his home district of Nicosia.
Second: DISY remains deeply polarised.
The party leadership made the controversial decision to impose a moratorium on public statements, hoping to calm tensions.
Yet even the slightest provocation appears enough to reignite the confrontation.
The latest example was the dispute triggered by former European Commissioner Stella Kyriakides’ endorsement of Pamboridis.
Third: Both candidates have passionate supporters and determined opponents, although not necessarily in equal measure.
Can whoever wins bring the party together?
Both men have said, sometimes indirectly and sometimes quite explicitly, that they will respect the outcome and support whoever party members choose.
But will those promises hold in practice?
That remains an open question.
Party officials have already lined up behind one candidate or the other. Will they all rally around the eventual nominee?
There is considerable mutual suspicion between the two camps.
Then there is the case of Harris Georgiades, who has openly and unequivocally declared that he will not support Neophytou if the former DISY leader wins the nomination.
Fourth: The alliances the eventual DISY candidate can build.
The prospects are certainly not identical for Neophytou and Pamboridis.
Both, however, face substantial obstacles to forming alliances, despite their increasingly visible efforts to reach beyond their immediate political base.
Neophytou appears to be developing a political platform designed to create opportunities for cooperation with parties beyond the centre-right, including Volt and Direct Democracy.
He is also keeping communication channels open with DIPA, should the party eventually consider leaving the governing coalition.
His strategy is clearly aimed at making up for the votes DISY stands to lose to Christodoulides.
Yet cooperation with Volt or Direct Democracy could itself drive more voters away from DISY.
Pamboridis, meanwhile, is pursuing a centre-right platform, adding the word radical to distinguish his political identity from the centre-right government that Christodoulides claims to represent.
Ideologically and politically, such a platform could bring together centre-right forces.
Under current circumstances, however, an alliance with DIKO or DIPA would be extremely difficult.
This is one of the key differences between the two DISY contenders, reflecting their contrasting political narratives and arguments about who stands the better chance of winning.
Neophytou is presenting his candidacy as an opportunity for vindication.
His argument rests on his appeal across traditional party boundaries, recognition of his leadership abilities and an approach that keeps the door open to voters ranging from the right to the centre-left.
He emphasises his experience, leadership skills, knowledge of the Cyprus problem and determination to achieve a settlement.
That is no coincidence.
Neophytou is evidently also considering a possible second-round contest against Christodoulides and wants to maintain connections with voters beyond the centre-right.
Pamboridis, by contrast, is building his campaign around the promise of a fresh political alternative.
His central message is that choosing him would allow DISY to turn the page on 2023, leave that election behind and put itself in a position to win.
The implication is clear: Neophytou has already been tested and lost, and choosing him again would risk another failure to reach the second round.
In this reading, the former DISY leader is part of the problem and the internal divisions that continue to trouble the party.
Pamboridis also points to his political reputation beyond party lines, particularly his role in establishing Cyprus’s General Healthcare System (GeSY) when he served as health minister.
His campaign has also highlighted endorsements from prominent figures, particularly those associated with Nicosia’s urban professional circles.
Mavroyiannis gains ground as pressure mounts on AKEL
Another important feature of the political landscape emerging from recent opinion polls is the electoral strength of Andreas Mavroyiannis as a potential presidential candidate.
He has not formally announced his intention to run, and there is no guarantee AKEL will choose him.
Nevertheless, the support he attracts in several surveys, including last week’s ALPHA poll, is putting considerable pressure on the left-wing party.
Those figures also appear to be strengthening Mavroyiannis’s own intentions.
In television appearances this week, he repeated that he would announce his decision by the end of the year, regardless of what AKEL decides.
Speaking on ALPHA last Thursday, he went as far as saying the poll showed he would become president.
That is not entirely accurate.
Still, there are some important findings concerning a possible Mavroyiannis candidacy.
First: Both the ALPHA poll and other surveys conducted in recent months give Mavroyiannis a substantial share of the vote, enough to secure a place in the second round.
His candidacy therefore appears capable of achieving one of the two main objectives in a presidential election: reaching the run-off.
Second: The other objective, of course, is actually winning.
Can Mavroyiannis win the presidency?
This has been, and remains, the central question in AKEL’s internal discussions about the election.
According to the ALPHA poll, Mavroyiannis would win a second-round contest against the DISY candidate, whether Neophytou or Pamboridis.
But he would lose if the 2023 contest were repeated, with Christodoulides as his opponent.
These are, of course, hypothetical scenarios. The second round is effectively a new election, and the political landscape has yet to take its final shape.
What is clear is that Mavroyiannis retains considerable electoral support, possibly carried over from his 2023 campaign.
What remains unclear is how his prospects would change if AKEL ultimately chose someone else.
He would certainly not retain the same momentum.
Nevertheless, AKEL cannot ignore his polling figures, particularly if he announces his candidacy before the party completes its own selection process.
At the same time, the concerns within AKEL headquarters on Ezekias Papaioannou Street about whether he could actually win a second-round contest are understandable.
Many within the party remember that the circumstances of the 2023 election were unusual.
The turmoil within DISY helped Mavroyiannis secure 48% of the vote in the run-off.
There is no guarantee those circumstances will be repeated.
That is why AKEL is examining other possible candidates and emphasising the need to build alliances.
Its main target is EDEK, under its new leadership.
Although there initially appeared to be common ground with ALMA, statements by Odysseas Michaelides and the role of Irene Charalambidou now appear to be undermining that prospect.
In any event, building alliances remains difficult, while Mavroyiannis continues to exert considerable pressure on AKEL as the party approaches its decisions.
