Greece is most likely to issue a NAVTEX over the weekend allowing surveys to resume for laying the Cyprus-Crete electricity cable, the Great Sea Interconnector (GSI), Greek media reported on Thursday.
The French-flagged survey vessel Abeille Marengo, which remains in the port of Heraklion, would sail for the survey area as soon as the NAVTEX takes effect, which would be immediately, according to the reports. Surveys were halted in 2024 after Turkish warships intervened.
The move is expected to settle a key outstanding issue both for the project and for Greece’s exercise of its sovereign rights, according to the reports.
Members of a special inter-ministerial committee operating under the Greek Foreign Ministry were reportedly told on 2 November to submit their recommendations on licensing the project by Friday. If, as expected, the answer is positive, the Hellenic Coast Guard will issue an exemption permit for the Abeille Marengo. The company managing the project will then formally request a NAVTEX through the Defence Ministry, so that the Hellenic Navy Hydrographic Service can issue it immediately.
Turkish reaction
Well-informed sources believe the climate after the US midterm elections makes it a good time to resume the surveys and reduces the risk of a repeat of the 2024 incident. Following contacts between France and Turkey, they expect either no Turkish reaction or one limited to the usual radio challenges, known as hailing.
According to the same assessments, a new Congress controlled by the Democratic Party limits President Donald Trump’s room to meet Ankara’s demands, chief among them Turkey’s return to the F-35 programme. Turkey is therefore not expected to attempt a serious escalation that would put it on Congress’s radar.
The assessments also hold that, with Israel’s influence in the US declining and Israel being targeted over the war in Iran, which is widely blamed for the economic crisis that shaped the US election result, stirring tension in the region would be high-risk for Turkey. It would also undercut Ankara’s argument that Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are the region’s troublemakers.
This does not mean Ankara is willing to accept moves it considers contrary to its aims and claims. It has warned that it will protect its rights and will not allow “unauthorised research in the area of the Turkish continental shelf”.
A French formula for “informing” Turkey about the surveys appears to have been accepted by Ankara, as it offers a face-saving way out, according to the reports. Some argue the formula has grey areas, as there is no obligation to inform any state other than the coastal state whose continental shelf is involved, which receives the licensing application and issues the NAVTEX.
Turkey is likely to present the notification as a permit request and is expected to issue its own NAVTEX for the surveys. In line with established practice, the Heraklion station would then issue a counter-NAVTEX stating that the surveys are taking place on the Greek continental shelf and that the valid NAVTEX is the Greek one.
(information from protothema.gr)
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