There is an 80% chance that global temperatures will break at least one annual heat record in the next five years, significantly raising the risk of extreme droughts, floods and forest fires, according to a new report by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
The data indicates for the first time a small likelihood that the world could experience a year 2°C hotter than pre-industrial levels before 2030 – a possibility scientists have described as “shocking”.
The probability stands at just 1%, but experts warn this figure will increase as the climate continues to warm.
The latest medium-term global climate update shows a 70% chance that five-year average warming for 2025-2029 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, putting the world perilously close to breaking the most ambitious target of the Paris Agreement.
There is also an 86% likelihood that 1.5°C will be passed in at least one of the next five years, up from 40% in the 2020 report.
In 2024, the 1.5°C threshold was breached on an annual basis for the first time – an outcome considered implausible in five-year predictions before 2014. Last year was the hottest in the 175-year observational record, following the warmest decade ever measured.
The report, compiled by 220 ensemble members from models contributed by 15 different institutes including the UK’s Met Office, Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, and Deutscher Wetterdienst, underscores how rapidly the world is warming.
The impacts will be unevenly distributed across the globe. Arctic winters are predicted to warm 3.5 times faster than the global average, partly because melting sea ice means snow falls directly into the ocean rather than forming a reflective surface layer.
The Amazon rainforest is predicted to suffer more droughts, whilst South Asia, the Sahel and northern Europe, including the UK, will see increased rainfall.
Leon Hermanson of the Met Office, who led the report’s production, said 2025 is likely to be one of the three warmest years on record.
Chris Hewitt, director of climate services at the WMO, described a “worrying picture” for heatwaves and human health, but emphasised it was not too late to limit warming through fossil fuel emission cuts.
