A new study published in The Lancet digital edition today estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the war may be 41% higher than official figures from the Hamas-run health ministry.
The peer-reviewed research suggests between 55,298 and 78,525 people may have died during the period, compared to the ministry’s figure of 37,877.
The study’s median estimate of 64,260 deaths represents approximately 2.9% of Gaza’s pre-war population, or “about one in 35 residents.”
The researchers used a statistical method called “capture-recapture,” previously employed to assess casualties in other international conflicts.
The analysis drew from three sources: hospital and mortuary records, digitally collected ministry data on family-reported deaths, and verified social media obituaries.
Lead author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP that the study only included deaths confirmed by relatives or medical facilities.
The figures exclude indirect deaths from lack of medical care or food, and an estimated 10,000 missing persons believed buried under rubble, according to UN OCHA.
Independent experts consulted by AFP called the methodology sound, though noting inherent uncertainties in working with incomplete data.
The Israeli government disputes Hamas health ministry figures, though these are considered reliable by the UN. As of Thursday, the ministry reported 46,006 deaths over 15 months of war, while Israel recorded 1,208 deaths from Hamas’s October 7 attack, AFP reports.
Experts, governments, United Nations agencies, and non-governmental organisations have accused Israel of carrying out genocide against the Palestinian people.
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