Two recent private opinion polls point to a fluid political landscape and a closely fought first round in Cyprus’s presidential election, challenging any assumption that a clear favourite has already emerged.
The findings of the two surveys, carried out by established polling companies for private purposes and seen by Phileleftheros, broadly converge on several conclusions about the shape of the race.
What both polls suggest above all is that the first round could prove decisive, particularly in the battle for the centre-right and right-wing vote.
The race remains fluid
First: The clearest conclusion is that the political landscape remains unsettled.
With neither the number nor the identity of the eventual candidates yet known, responses to polling questions are inevitably based on hypothetical scenarios.
Mavroyiannis reaches the second round
Second: Andreas Mavroyiannis, if he runs for president, advances to the second round in the scenarios examined.
He appears to have electoral momentum, although this weakens if ALMA, led by Odysseas Michaelides, fields its own candidate in the presidential election.
That is understandable, as ALMA would clearly be competing for votes from the opposition pool from which Mavroyiannis also draws much of his support.
Respondents also appear to assume that Mavroyiannis would be the candidate backed by AKEL.
It would be interesting to test a scenario in which Odysseas Michaelides ran with AKEL’s backing, although under current circumstances such a possibility appears extremely remote.
Christodoulides, Demetriou and Neofytou in a tight race
Third: Perhaps the most striking, although not unexpected, finding is how close the contest is over who could reach the second round from the right.
Whether the scenario puts Nikos Christodoulides against Annita Demetriou or Christodoulides against Averof Neofytou, the gap between them falls within the statistical margin of error.
In both scenarios, Christodoulides holds a slight lead.
Another notable finding is that all three appear to start from roughly the same level of support among DISY voters.
That means Nikos Christodoulides, Annita Demetriou or Averof Neofytou could potentially emerge as the candidate facing Andreas Mavroyiannis in the second round, should Mavroyiannis ultimately stand.
It also raises the possibility of an electoral déjà vu in the first round, with Christodoulides, Mavroyiannis and Neofytou once again among the candidates. The question would then be whether the outcome would be different this time.
Mavroyiannis increasingly seen as a possible candidate
Fourth: Taken together with the other findings, the surveys suggest that the possibility of an Andreas Mavroyiannis candidacy is becoming more firmly established, particularly given the level of support he appears to command.
That is a factor AKEL will have to consider as it shapes its strategy for the presidential election.
DISY also faces an internal contest
Fifth: The findings also point to a close internal battle within DISY over who will secure the party’s presidential nomination.
Annita Demetriou and Averof Neofytou appear headed for a tight contest.
The fact that Christodoulides continues to command significant influence among party members could also matter in that internal race and potentially tip the balance.
Candidates and political developments will be decisive
Sixth: Much will depend on how the political landscape develops before the presidential election.
The eventual field of candidates, how many stand and which parties support them will all be decisive.
So too will the issues dominating the public agenda, whether there are developments on the Cyprus problem, the state of the economy and whether the country faces crises requiring political management.
Political landscape in transition
Cyprus’s political landscape is going through a period of reshaping, a factor that cannot be ignored when assessing the presidential race.
Nikos Christodoulides sought through his cabinet reshuffle to bind DIKO more closely to his government through to the presidential election.
The expectation is that the people he appointed will remain close to him even if DIKO ultimately leaves the government.
DIKO’s leadership does not currently have many alternatives, and despite party leader Nicolas Papadopoulos’ dissatisfaction with the reshuffle, there is no clear political narrative at present for DIKO to withdraw from government. That does not mean, however, that the issue can already be considered settled.
EDEK, meanwhile, is going through an internal party process with an uncertain outcome and has expressed dissatisfaction over what it sees as its diminished role following the latest reshuffle.
DIPA has also complained that it was not kept informed.
There is no single position within the party. Marinos Kleanthous, in particular, has been strongly critical of Christodoulides, although his position does not represent everyone within DIPA.
DISY, for its part, faces a difficult internal contest not only over its presidential candidate but also, potentially, over the party leadership.
AKEL is due to begin its internal presidential-election discussions from September.
ELAM will hold an electoral congress in November, with all scenarios regarding the presidential election remaining open.
ALMA is trying to establish itself as a political force, although its intentions for what comes next remain unclear, while Direct Democracy continues to follow its own course.
