Cypriot voters are heading to the polls today to elect the 56 MPs who will represent them for the next five years, in an election that experts say will fundamentally alter the country’s political landscape.
The entry of at least two new political forces, ALMA and Idiatiki Dimokratia (Direct Democracy), alongside the likely arrival of a third, Volt, will redraw the traditional party map. Combined with an expected surge for the National People’s Front (ELAM), the new parliament will bear little resemblance to previous terms. Concurrently, traditional forces face the real prospect of being left out entirely, potentially signaling the end of an era if historic parties like EDEK fail to clear the 3.6 per cent threshold.
Political analyst and Council of Europe media and elections expert Christoforos Christoforou and Yiannos Katsourides, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Nicosia, spoke to Phileleftheros to analyse the shifting balances and the upgraded role anticipated for ELAM.
Seat allocation scenarios
If the final results align closely with polling data from ten days ago, experts anticipate four main scenarios based on the number of parties that secure parliamentary seats:
- Six-party parliament: The largest party takes 13–15 seats, followed by one with 12–14, one with 8–10, two with 6–8, and one with 5–7.
- Seven-party parliament: The leading party secures 13–15 seats, one takes 12–14, one gets 7–9, three take 5–7, and the smallest wins 2–4.
- Eight-party parliament: The top party secures 12–14 seats, followed by 11–13 for the second, 7–9 for the third, two parties with 5–7, one with 4–6, and two with 2–4.
- Nine-party parliament: The primary party wins 12–14 seats, the second takes 11–13, the third gets 6–8, the fourth takes 5–7, two secure 4–6, and three obtain 2–4.
The legislative math under a fragmented house
Barring a major surprise, a new political era will dawn tomorrow, requiring all factions to adapt to ensure a functional legislature. In a worst-case scenario for the Democratic Rally (DISY) and AKEL, the two traditional giants could be left with a combined total of just 23 seats. In that event, even if both parties fully agreed on a bill—a rare occurrence—they would still require six additional votes from other parties to pass legislation. Conversely, if both parties hit their theoretical polling ceilings, they would command at least 29 seats, enabling them to pass laws without external support.
The legislative math becomes far more complex if the two major parties disagree. In a hypothetical eight-party house where DISY finishes first with 13 seats and tables a proposal opposed by AKEL, it would need to secure 16 additional votes from the remaining parties. This would require building a coalition with at least three other smaller parties, or two if the third- and fourth-largest parties hit their maximum seat projections.
Building these majorities will be exceptionally difficult. Many centrist and left-wing forces are deeply reluctant to cooperate with ELAM, while Direct Democracy and ALMA are expected to maintain an anti-establishment stance in the house. While DIKO and Volt are theoretically more pragmatic partners for DISY or AKEL, any cooperation will depend strictly on the specific topic of the bill.
The most historic shift would occur if DISY and AKEL fail to secure more than 27 seats combined. Under this scenario, the parties ranking from third place downward would hold the mathematical power to pass legislation on their own, provided they can align to muster the required 28-vote majority.
Smaller parties hold the balance of power
The ideological orientation of the smaller parties will dictate which way the political balance tilts. The parliamentary dynamic will lean in one direction if Volt and the Green Party enter the house, and in a completely different direction if EDEK and DIPA survive. The United Cypriot Hunters Movement, which narrowly missed out in 2021, is also a factor, fielding a full slate of 55 candidates this year. A weakened DIKO, paired with a hardline ELAM, will inherently elevate the importance of these micro-parties, making every single vote critical to passing government bills.
Rules for electing the new house speaker
The first act of the new parliament will be electing its President (Speaker). During the campaign, the major parties established several red lines:
- DISY: Excludes any candidate originating from AKEL or ELAM. Annita Demetriou wants re-election, though the party keeps open the option of fielding an alternative candidate from within its ranks.
- AKEL: Excludes any candidate from ELAM or DISY. The party is considering fielding its own candidate.
- ELAM: Intends to field its own candidate. It completely excludes any candidate from the left and explicitly rejects Annita Demetriou, blaming her for unfair treatment during the previous term. However, it does not rule out supporting a different candidate from DISY.
- DIKO: Has not officially ruled out any party or individual. Nicolas Papadopoulos has a clear interest in the position.
- ALMA: Rejects both Annita Demetriou and ELAM leader Christos Christou. Odysseas Michaelides will not run and views Irene Charalambidou as the ideal candidate.
- Direct Democracy: Has not ruled out any individual or party, stating its goal is a parliament of national unity.
This election will follow the updated parliamentary rules enacted at the end of the previous term. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must secure an absolute majority of the total number of MPs, meaning 29 out of 56 votes. If no candidate reaches this threshold, the election proceeds to a second round featuring only the top two candidates, where the winner is decided by a simple majority of votes cast.
Analysts’ perspectives
Yiannos Katsourides on ELAM’s normalized role
ELAM began as a subsidiary of the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn, but through strategic rebranding and the political shifts of other parties, it has shed that stigma. For a significant portion of the electorate, it is now viewed as a normal party with a steady upward trajectory, successfully occupying the ideological space to the right of DISY.
If current polling holds, ELAM will become the third-largest parliamentary force, a position that will amplify its influence far beyond its actual numbers. It will act as a pivotal player starting with the vote for the house speaker, and could dictate legislative majorities if an informal centre-right or far-right alliance materialises.
This shift will also impact the next presidential race. In a more fluid, less bipolar, and distinctly right-leaning landscape, ELAM will become a critical pool of voters for the second round. It will possess the leverage to dictate campaign themes, force its agenda onto mainstream candidates seeking right-wing support, and potentially demand cabinet positions in a future government. ELAM is no longer a fringe protest party; its growth raises broader questions about the nature of contemporary Cypriot democracy.
Christoforos Christoforou on the electorate’s dilemma
Voters are heading to the polls after facing a barrage of warnings from traditional parties, analysts, the President, and government ministers, all cautioning against choosing a “destructive” path. This aggressive rhetoric against new faces and political movements has left voters with more questions than answers.
The public is questioning whether the established political forces, the government, and the media have shown the necessary seriousness and credibility to retain public trust. Voters are wondering why the campaign featured so few actionable policy proposals and so many unrealistic promises, alongside frequent interventions by government ministers campaigning openly for specific parties. Questions also remain over the credibility of President Christodoulides’s repeated assurances regarding an imminent solution plan for the Cyprus problem and the immediate exploitation of natural gas.
Regardless of the choices made today, the predicted chaos will not materialise tomorrow. The newly elected MPs must treat the day after not as a crisis, but as an opportunity for the country. The new parliament must move away from forming ad-hoc majorities that serve narrow, vested interests and instead engage in genuine consultation to serve the public good. True progress will only occur if the government and the President recognize their core responsibilities and work transparently to rebuild public trust.
