US President Donald Trump went to Ankara — in the middle of summer, no less — as Santa Claus. The ground for the announcements had been prepared for days. In his meeting with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the American president handed out promises. According to analysts, he opened a “window” for the sale of F-35s to Turkey. He promised to lift the CAATSA sanctions.
The meeting between the two men in Ankara, held on the sidelines of the NATO summit, created some new facts on the ground. It is becoming clear that Turkey now appears closer to acquiring the five F-35s which, as is well known, were built on its behalf but never delivered because of the sanctions imposed on Ankara after its purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system.
There is no decision yet to hand over the aircraft, since procedures must first be set in motion. The real question is whether the sanctions will be lifted, or whether the American president will bypass the procedures and unilaterally make good on his promises. The latter looks difficult.
It is obvious that Mr Trump’s task is not an easy one. Lifting the sanctions could take time — there is talk of two years. What was clear, however, from what he said in Ankara, in front of his friend Erdoğan, is that he is determined to press ahead. The American president, analysts say, may be able to find formulas that get him all the way to the sale of the F-35s. Easier, it seems, would be the provision of American engines for Turkey’s Kaan fighter programme.
In Washington, meanwhile, the reaction has already begun, along with efforts to block Turkey’s return to the F-35 programme. Members of Congress have drafted and sent a letter to the House leadership expressing their opposition to the sale of the fighter jets.
At the same time, Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said in an interview with the US network CNN that selling F-35 fighter jets to Ankara “would destroy the balance of power in the Middle East because Turkey has aggressive designs”. Israel’s reaction, therefore, is a given.
It is clear that the… performance staged at Erdoğan’s palace in Ankara, with hymns of praise ringing out from both sides, is reshaping US-Turkish relations. Relations that are tied to America’s plans for the region.
What we watched unfold in Ankara is expected to serve as a lever of pressure on both NATO and the European Union by the United States and Turkey. That is why Athens and Nicosia will need to handle this with extreme care.
