The results of next Sunday’s parliamentary elections look set to produce an entirely different political landscape. Particularly if the parties currently battling — according to the polls — to clear the entry threshold into parliament, namely Volt, EDEK, DIPA, and the Ecologists, actually manage it. A ten-party House of Representatives would be, in effect, a modern-day Tower of Babel, with everything that implies for balance, consensus, and the basic functioning of the House.
Sunday night promises to be a nerve-shredding ordeal for quite a few party headquarters. The interest this time around is not confined to who comes first. Of course, if AKEL manages to emerge as the largest party — something this column regards as a surprise — it will carry a certain significance. But it will not carry the political weight it once would have.
First, because the collapse of the two traditional poles has gone so far that an election result now has limited bearing on the next presidential race. When DISY and AKEL were each polling above 30%, they could count on a place in the second round and then go shopping for alliances among the centre parties.
Second, because the parties that spent years advertising themselves as kingmakers have largely lost that advantage. This applies above all to DIKO, and to a lesser degree to EDEK. A glance back at parliamentary election results across the twenty-first century tells the story of a political landscape in transformation.
In 2001, DIKO recorded 14.84%, while ADIK — founded by former DIKO figure Dinos Michaelidis — secured 2.16%. KISOS, as EDEK had been renamed at the time, managed just 6.51%. Meanwhile, AKEL emerged as the largest party on 34.71%, with DISY close behind on 34%. In that landscape, any alliance between either of the big two and DIKO could, by and large, open the door to power.
The picture was similar in 2006. AKEL secured 31.13% and DISY 30.34%. DIKO, following the dissolution of ADIK, bounced back to a commanding 17.92%, cementing its role as the primary kingmaker, while EDEK recorded 8.91%.
In 2011, DIKO slipped to 15.76%. Yet DISY climbed to 34.28% and AKEL to 32.67%, keeping the two-pole dominance intact. Even so, DIKO continued to present itself as the essential middleman, while EDEK maintained significant influence on 8.93%.
2016 was the turning point. That was the year the countdown began — not just for the large parties, but for the political landscape as a whole. DISY fell back to 30.69%, while AKEL recorded a sharp drop to 25.67%, the price of an unpopular term in government. But new players were also emerging: Giorgos Lillikas’s Citizens’ Alliance on 6.01% and Eleni Theocharous’s Solidarity on 5.24%.
Within that landscape, DIKO remained a key power-broker — 14.49% could, particularly in combination with DISY, create the conditions for government, even if that did not materialise in 2018.
By 2021, the first serious signs appeared that DIKO’s kingmaker status was under challenge. DISY contracted to 27.77% and AKEL to 22.34%, while DIKO shrank to 11.29% — partly the consequence of the split that produced DIPA under Marios Karoyian, which secured 6.1%. EDEK fell to 6.72%.
Despite its diminished weight, DIKO continued to be regarded as the essential intermediary between the two big parties, mainly because it remained the third-largest party with a double-digit share.
If 2021 was the harbinger of a new political era, May 24, 2026 looks set to mark the definitive transition. On the basis of every polling signal, DISY and AKEL are expected to appear even more weakened. The same appears true of DIKO.
In plain terms: the combined total of either of the two large parties plus DIKO will now struggle to generate a majority governing bloc or even meaningful parliamentary control.
Third place, according to the polls, looks set to go to ELAM. Two new parties — ALMA and Direct Democracy — will also be declaring themselves on the board. The share they secure matters enormously, as it could prove decisive in shaping the post-election balance of power and whatever alliances are subsequently attempted.
If the ballot boxes confirm the picture the polls are painting, the political chess match of the presidential elections will become extraordinarily complex. And along with it, inevitably, we will find ourselves watching considerably more political horse-trading than we have been used to.
