Heatwave-related deaths in Europe could triple by century’s end, with southern European nations bearing the brunt, a new study suggests.
The research, published in The Lancet Public Health, challenges the notion that climate change might benefit society by reducing cold-related deaths.
Whilst cold weather currently claims more lives in Europe, the study indicates that rising temperatures could lead to a disproportionate increase in heat-related fatalities.
Should global warming reach 3 or 4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the surge in heatwave deaths would significantly outweigh any decrease in cold-related mortality, researchers concluded.
The study predicts that if temperatures rise by 3C, annual heat-related deaths could reach 129,000, up from the current 44,000. Even if global warming is limited to 1.5C, as per international goals, the combined annual toll from heat and cold could rise from 407,000 to 450,000 by 2100.
Researchers modelled data from 854 European cities, finding that whilst heat would claim more lives continent-wide, southern nations such as Spain, Italy, and Greece, along with parts of France, would be most severely impacted.
The findings come amidst a spate of severe heatwaves across Europe, underscoring the potential “unprecedented challenges” to public health systems.
Madeleine Thomson, head of climate impacts and adaptation at the Wellcome Trust, who was not involved in the study, called the research “a stark reminder” of the risks posed by insufficient action on climate change.
The study’s authors emphasised the need for adaptation efforts, particularly in areas with high unemployment, poverty, structural economic changes, migration, and ageing populations, which are less equipped to cope with climate-related challenges.
However, some experts caution that predicting temperature-related deaths is complex and subject to uncertainty.
Gary Konstantinoudis, an epidemiologist at the MRC Centre for Environment and Health, noted that the study’s methodology might overestimate future heat-related mortality by not accounting for potential improvements in healthcare and infrastructure.
The researchers conclude that addressing greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to averting the worst-case scenarios outlined in the study.
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