Extreme heat could cost the Cyprus economy up to €3.8 billion in cumulative losses by 2050, according to the Cyprus Institute.
The institute says the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events are increasing in Cyprus, as elsewhere in the world, raising health risks and productivity losses for workers both outdoors and indoors. It points to a separate estimate from the London School of Economics’ Grantham Research Institute, that last June’s heatwave in the UK alone caused economic losses of more than £1 billion.
Researchers at the institute combined climate and biological data to calculate physical heat stress indicators across different levels of work intensity and sun exposure. The study assumed that workers most likely to be affected by rising heat are those in outdoor roles in construction, agriculture and tourism.
Combining these physical impacts with economic data, the Cyprus Institute assessed that lost economic output due to hotter working conditions could reach €101 million in 2030, equivalent to 0.4% of GDP, rising to €303 million in 2050, or 0.7% of GDP. Cumulative economic losses up to 2050 could reach €2.3–3.8 billion in 2023 euros, equivalent to 0.5% of Cyprus’s GDP over that period, if no further workplace adaptation measures are introduced, the institute said.
Professor Theodoros Zachariades, one of the study’s authors, said the findings represent the first attempt to estimate, using Cypriot data, the economic damage caused by lost work hours due to extreme heat. He said the costs to the economy “will be significant” as the intensity and duration of very hot days increase in the coming years, even though indoor workplaces are largely protected by air conditioning. Zachariades added that while most European countries may face greater labour productivity losses overall due to inadequately adapted indoor workplaces, the impacts on Cyprus’s most exposed and vulnerable outdoor workers could still be severe, and said adaptation measures are needed to monitor and protect workers’ health and performance.
