UN Secretary-General’s personal envoy Maria Angela Holguin has warned that if there is no progress on confidence-building measures, her report to Antonio Guterres will say that nothing happened, as she awaited answers from both sides on Monday on four new crossing points and demining along the dividing line.
In an interview with Turkish news agency ANKA, published on Sunday, Holguin described Monday as critical for continuing efforts on the Cyprus problem and said she hoped a step could be taken on the measures this time. If nothing happens, “Goodbye, everyone. Goodbye to me, goodbye to Guterres,” she said.
If there was progress, efforts could continue next year, even after the current Secretary-General’s term ends, she said, provided the process stayed alive.
The interview took place at the offices of the UN Good Offices Mission at the old Nicosia airport in the buffer zone, after a week of contacts with both sides. At the same time, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan was meeting Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhurman at the “presidential” compound in occupied Nicosia.
Crossing points and demining
Holguin said the package under discussion includes four new crossing points and the clearing of 70,000 square metres of mines on each side, near UN checkpoint No 10 in the Deryneia area.
Asked about the Turkish Cypriot side’s request for a decision on demining the whole of Cyprus, she said the process had to start somewhere, with the same area on each side. The final aim was a mine-free island, she said, but the perfect should not be the enemy of the good, and demining should not be held up because people wanted more.
According to ANKA, the Greek Cypriot side cites the presence of a Turkish tank unit in Cyprus and believes the removal of anti-tank mines should be discussed as part of negotiations on security.
On the crossing points, Holguin referred to a proposal to replace Kokkina with Kampos, saying she hoped this would help. According to ANKA, the package on which agreement is expected includes Mia Milia, the Athienou-Pyroi-Aglantzia route, Louroujina-Lympia and the Kampos-Karavostasi route.
Next steps
Holguin said the two leaders had shown political will on confidence-building measures, but expressed disappointment at the limited progress on how to restart substantive negotiations. After a year and a half to almost two years of effort, greater convergence had been expected on methodology, procedural steps and the framework for future talks, she said, adding that the process had to move step by step.
One possible scenario was a meeting of the two leaders with Guterres in a 2+1 format, followed by an enlarged 5+1 meeting with Turkey, Greece and the United Kingdom, she said. The leaders would first have to prepare proposals on the procedures and methodology of new talks.
Holguin identified the 5+1 meeting as the stage at which formal negotiations could begin, but said it had not been decided whether Guterres would prefer a trilateral meeting first or go straight to a 5+1. Once the package on crossing points and demining is finalised, she will brief him and discuss the next steps. She gave no date for either meeting, saying that would depend on Guterres’s assessment and schedule.
Rotating presidency
Holguin said the two sides had reached agreement on political equality on 11 December, although the report does not specify the year. The issue was more about the rotating presidency, which is part of political equality, she said, but it would be “very difficult” to ask President Nikos Christodoulides to confirm explicitly that he accepts it before negotiations begin.
The details of political equality must be worked out in the talks and not beforehand, she said. At Crans-Montana, the rotating presidency had been linked to troops and security, and there was still concern on the Greek Cypriot side that a similar link could resurface in any new negotiations.
Erhurman’s four points
Holguin called on Erhurman to turn the four points he has set out as a framework for restarting negotiations into specific proposals. According to ANKA, the Turkish Cypriot side wants, among other things, negotiations held within a set timeframe and guarantees that if they fail through no fault of its own, there will be no automatic return to the status quo.
She asked Erhurman to specify what measures he would want in such a case, and said both leaders should consider what happens if one side leaves the table. That must be prepared before any 2+1 meeting with Guterres, she said, whether separately or jointly.
She named direct trade, direct flights and direct contacts as possible options. Told that the Turkish Cypriot side’s main priority is direct trade with the European Union, she said EU participation was essential, as the UN’s role was to facilitate and put options before the two leaders.
Varosha
Holguin said she saw Christodoulides’s proposal for Greek Cypriots to resettle in Varosha, under temporary UN administration, as an attempt to respond to Erhurman’s four points. There had to be irreversible steps, she said, and placing Varosha under UN administration could be one.
She expressed doubt that the same could be said of the port of Famagusta and direct trade, and agreed that a trade arrangement based on some form of licence could possibly be revoked in future.
UN administration of Varosha would, however, bring significant financial and practical demands, she said. The UN does not have the means or logistical capacity to run an entire city, and even providing security there would require a significant budget. If the two sides agreed, the UN could ask the Security Council for funding, she said.
Implementation and guarantor powers
Holguin voiced reservations about the principle that “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”, which she said she had also encountered in the peace process in Colombia. She called the approach negative, arguing that some confidence-building measures should be implemented as soon as they are agreed, as people only see that something has changed through implementation.
Turkey, Greece and the United Kingdom, as guarantor powers, must support whatever the two leaders agree, she said, adding that the 5+1 format offers the framework for that and that Turkey has a very big role to play.
She also spoke positively of the bicommunal technical committees, calling them a bridge between the two communities, and of a rapid-response mechanism being developed for fires and other natural disasters, so the two sides can act jointly and immediately without first having to make 15 phone calls.
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