The two sides in Cyprus appear close to agreeing a package of four new crossing points and demining ahead of a UN-hosted meeting with the two leaders on Monday. A deal could open the way to a UN conference on restarting Cyprus talks before Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’s term ends at the end of the year, although the Turkish side has signalled that the ultimate goal of any effort must be ‘two states’.
The package, details of which emerged in leaks to Turkish media, covers two confidence-building measures: opening new crossing points and demining. Whether the two sides agree will become clearer after Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s visit to the occupied north on Friday. If agreed, the deal is expected to be announced over the weekend or on Monday, when the Secretary-General’s personal envoy, Maria Angela Holguin, meets the two leaders.
Christodoulides said he spoke to Holguin by phone on Thursday morning and that, as she had told him, “we may possibly have specific announcements over the weekend”. He said that, on the information so far, the process appeared to point to positive developments, and that they were now waiting for final answers.
Guterres was being kept informed at all times, Christodoulides said. He added that he sincerely hoped positive developments would be announced.
The UN mission in Cyprus said Holguin would receive Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhurman and Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Christodoulides at 11am on Monday, 9 November, at the residence of the head of the mission in the UN protected area.
Asked whether developments were expected on the crossing points, Christodoulides noted that the effort launched immediately after Guterres’s visit to Cyprus covers methodology, substance and confidence-building measures, adding that the discussion was broader. He said the anxiety and wishes of the Cypriot people were entirely justified. He continues to submit proposals and approaches, he said, which he believes could lead to a resumption of talks if there is political will.
Three steps
Three steps are planned before Guterres leaves office, two of them involving the Secretary-General himself. The first, agreement on the confidence-building package, is the hurdle that has already eased.
If the leaders agree on the package, Guterres intends to invite Christodoulides and Erhurman to a 2+1 meeting to discuss and agree on a methodology, the ANKA news agency reported on Thursday, citing Turkish diplomatic sources. Whether the two leaders can agree on a methodology in his presence is the second hurdle.
If that meeting ends positively, Guterres would convene an enlarged 5+1 conference with the foreign ministers of Greece, Turkey and Britain. There, the resumption of Cyprus talks would be agreed and then announced by the Secretary-General himself, in effect the outgoing UN chief’s parting gift to his successor. This sequence would meet the conditions Guterres has set for convening the 5+1 conference.
The third hurdle, perhaps the hardest, concerns Turkey’s goal for the Cyprus problem and the current phase of efforts. Even as information about a possible deal on the package was leaked, the Turkish side made a point of restating that the outcome must be ‘two states’.
Whose proposals
The package leaked to Turkish media does not differ from what Christodoulides proposed to both the Turkish Cypriot side and the UN Secretary-General, and the Greek Cypriot side was the first to accept it. The reports, however, present it as a proposal by Holguin.
Government sources told Phileleftheros that what was presented were Christodoulides’s proposals. The same sources believe that presenting the package as Holguin’s serves two aims. One is to make it easier for Turkey and the Turkish Cypriot side to agree, opening up prospects for the next stage. The other, if there is a deal, is to reduce or deny the Greek Cypriot side and the UN Secretary-General credit for the success, since Christodoulides’s proposals will have been presented as those of the UN and Holguin.
What the package includes
The four crossing points are Mia Milia, Athienou-Pyroi-Aglantzia, Louroujina-Lympia and Kambos-Karavostasi. Christodoulides added the last of these as an alternative to a crossing at Kokkina, which the Turkish side refuses to discuss because the area has been designated a military zone. The routes meet different needs of the two communities.
The package provides for clearing 70,000 square metres of minefields. According to the same Turkish sources, the Greek Cypriot side agrees with the proposal, while the Turkish Cypriot side considers limiting clearance to the designated areas insufficient and wants full demining.
The UN appears keen to avoid a repeat of what happened last September in New York, when Erhurman refused a 2+1 meeting with the Secretary-General because the proposal had come from Christodoulides rather than the UN.
