Increasingly hot and dry weather caused by climate change is expected to worsen income inequality and poverty in Cyprus, with the island set to be hit much harder than the EU average, according to a study published in the journal Global Environmental Change.
Almost half of Cypriot households could be at risk of poverty by the end of the century, up from 14.9 per cent today, if global warming reaches 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels, as projected under current policies, and no serious adaptation measures are taken. Even if warming is held to 2°C, which is possible only with ambitious global action to cut greenhouse gas emissions, the share may rise to 25 per cent.
The poorest are already paying the highest price. Income losses from heat and drought in Cyprus have so far been about 9 per cent for the poorest households, compared with about 5 per cent for the population as a whole, slightly worse than the EU average. Future losses are expected to be much worse than the EU average, as combined dry and hot events become more frequent with rising temperatures.
Income losses from climate change in Cyprus may amount to 54 per cent of future income levels, double the European average. That would wipe out most future income growth and threaten the island’s economic and social development unless global emissions are curbed and more is done to adapt to harsher weather.
Europe’s poorest hit hardest
Across Europe, poor households lost 2.7 per cent more of their income than rich ones because of heat and drought over the past 20 years. Lower-income households are more likely to live in areas highly exposed to heat and drought, and are less able to pay for energy-efficiency upgrades or protect their property from natural hazards.
The study’s lead author, Jessie Schleypen, a PhD candidate at the Humboldt University of Berlin, said heat and drought do more damage when they strike together than when they occur separately. The poorest households, who face unequal costs in obtaining basic services and the money to cope and recover, are affected the most, Schleypen said.
Each income shock leaves poor households with fewer resources and fewer options to avoid future harm, “turning short-term impacts into long-term effects and pushing them into a poverty trap,” Schleypen added.
Theodoros Zachariadis, a professor at the Cyprus Institute who took part in the same research project but not in this study, said it was “shocking how much climate change can harm the most vulnerable people in our societies.”
He said policymakers must use the knowledge available to ensure climate-resilient buildings and neighbourhoods for the most vulnerable households. The cost of such measures is manageable and would protect the Cypriot economy from much higher costs from climate change, he added, describing climate policy as good economic and social policy for Cyprus.
The study was written by Schleypen, F. Saeed, A. Zimmer and T. Brück. The Cyprus Institute has published a policy brief on the findings.
