Turkey is making a “comeback” in the region, according to Constantinos Filis, professor at the American College of Greece and director of the Institute of International Relations, who said the Mecca Agreement has given Turkey an upgraded regional role.
Filis also said Turkey’s declaration of national maritime parks beyond its territorial waters confirms the extreme version of the “blue homeland” doctrine that Turkey holds.
He noted that the Cyprus problem and Greek-Turkish relations are connected, and said that even if a five-party conference on Cyprus were convened, the positions currently being expressed mean it would be “doomed to failure.”
Mecca Agreement boosts Turkey’s role
Asked about the Mutual Defence Agreement signed recently by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in Mecca, Filis said Turkey has already upgraded its regional role, and even more so through the pact. He said it represents the first attempt in the Middle East, under the region’s new evolving security environment, to bring together the forces of regional states.
Turkey’s participation in the agreement gives it a greater regional role, he continued, meaning Turkey now has even greater confidence in its position in the region and in its stance towards Greece and Cyprus.
On Egypt, Filis said Turkey has tried to move closer to Cairo because Ankara had previously been marginalised in the Eastern Mediterranean, relying only on its illegal Turkish-Libyan memorandum as a foothold.
Turkey has now significantly restored its relationship with Egypt, he said. Syria, which was hostile to Turkey under Assad, has moved closer, and Turkey is also trying to build ties with Lebanon. Lebanon signed an EEZ delimitation agreement with Cyprus a few months ago, though the internal situation there remains fairly unstable, he added.
Turkey, Filis therefore stressed, “is making a comeback in the region.”
He underlined that the main obstacle to Turkey’s revisionist agenda in the region is primarily Greece and Cyprus, and secondarily Israel.
Turkey, he added, sees a partnership between Cyprus, Greece and Israel “that troubles it deeply, and one it would like to break in some way. It has not managed to do so.”
Maritime parks confirm Turkey’s “blue homeland” doctrine
Asked about the maritime parks Turkey has declared in the northeastern Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean, Filis said the move “confirms the extreme version of Turkey’s blue homeland doctrine, which stands in direct contradiction to the Law of the Sea.”
He stressed that no national maritime park can, by definition, extend beyond territorial waters.
“Turkey is inventing something that has nothing to do with the Law of the Sea, extending its maritime parks beyond territorial waters, which goes against every principle of the Law of the Sea,” he said.
Cyprus problem and Greek-Turkish relations are linked
Asked whether these two developments also affect the Cyprus problem, Filis said the Cyprus issue and Greek-Turkish relations are connected.
“If relations between Greece and Turkey are calm, which they cannot fully be given Turkish revisionism, but during periods when they are calmer, that can have a positive effect on the Cyprus problem. When Greek-Turkish relations are in a bad phase, that affects the Cyprus problem negatively,” he said.
He continued by saying that when there is a prospect of resolving the Cyprus problem, that can positively affect Greek-Turkish relations, while when there is no such prospect, it either has no effect or a negative one on Greek-Turkish relations.
Five-party conference “doomed to failure” given current positions
On the prospect of convening a five-party conference on the Cyprus problem, Filis said that given the positions currently being expressed, it is “doomed to failure.”
“A five-party conference on Cyprus could be convened. But given the positions of the parties involved, it is doomed to failure,” he said.
“Even without the maritime parks, it would still be doomed to failure. Nine years have passed since Crans-Montana, and in those nine years there have been periods of tension and periods of calm in Greek-Turkish relations, yet we still haven’t seen any positive development on the Cyprus problem,” he concluded.
