Rainfall and desalination have improved the water balance, but major systems remain close to the 35% safety threshold and consumption continues to rise.
Cyprus’s dam storage has risen sharply from last year, but key water systems remain vulnerable if dry conditions return during 2027 and 2028, according to a technical assessment by the Water Development Department (WDD).
Total reserves currently stand at 38.9%, or 113.1 million cubic metres, compared with about 16% at the same point in 2025. However, they remain less than four percentage points above the 35% level set by the department as the minimum safety threshold for major water systems.
The WDD warned that a further decline would substantially increase the risk of severe water shortages in 2027 and 2028.
Higher rainfall and increased inflows between January and May improved the outlook and gave authorities greater flexibility in managing supplies. Desalination also supported the water balance, with operating plants contributing more than 51 million cubic metres so far.
Despite these gains, WDD projections show that some water systems could fall below the safety threshold by the end of 2026 and remain at low levels over the following two years if further dry conditions occur.
Major systems remain under pressure
Storage in the Southern Conveyor Project stands at 36.1%, or 68.4 million cubic metres, leaving it only slightly above the safety threshold.
Paphos’s dams are at 41.5%, with reserves of 29.7 million cubic metres. However, the WDD projects that the Paphos Major Irrigation Project could approach exhaustion by the end of 2028 because of increased drinking-water consumption.
The department stressed that the island-wide storage figure does not provide a complete picture because Cyprus operates several water systems with different capacities, requirements and levels of resilience.
The Southern Conveyor Project fell from about 42% at the beginning of 2024 to 10% in early 2026. During the same period, the Paphos Major Irrigation Project dropped from approximately 54% to about 9%.
Although both systems recovered during 2026, they continue to require careful management because they must meet demand amounting to millions of cubic metres.
One better year does not remove the risk
The WDD’s long-term analysis indicates that Cyprus experiences recurring 10-year cycles consisting of approximately seven years of low inflows followed by two or three years of temporary recovery.
The department said this pattern required conservative management, as one year of improved rainfall could not offset the effects of several preceding dry years.
Its projections extend to the end of 2028. They show limited safety margins for the Southern Conveyor Project and a risk of near-exhaustion for the Paphos Major Irrigation Project.
The 35% threshold is based on Cyprus’s long-term water-management experience and is intended to preserve sufficient reserves for consecutive years of drought.
Consumption exceeds initial targets
Drinking-water consumption has exceeded initial targets, placing additional pressure on reserves.
The WDD called for stricter monitoring by district local government organisations, reductions in water lost through supply networks and the use of pricing tools to manage demand.
It said the increase from last year must also be viewed in context because the comparison is with one of Cyprus’s worst periods in recent decades.
The fact that dam storage has more than doubled since 2025 does not mean reserves are sufficient to allow unrestricted consumption, the assessment said.
Continued conservation, reduced network losses and the development of alternative water sources therefore remain necessary.
Desalination remains central to supply
Permanent desalination plants had the capacity to produce 85 million cubic metres annually by 2025, equivalent to about 70% of nationwide drinking-water requirements of 121 million cubic metres.
Four mobile units brought into operation during 2025 and 2026 have supplied six million cubic metres of the more than 51 million provided by desalination plants so far.
The mobile units introduced during 2026 are expected to provide an additional nine million cubic metres annually, raising desalination’s estimated coverage of drinking-water requirements to 76%.
However, annual demand is increasing by at least 5%, gradually reducing the proportion covered by desalinated water.
Additional mobile units and new permanent infrastructure are planned in several areas, with the programme extending to 2029.
Some projects remain under construction or are subject to licensing, legal or other administrative procedures. The assessment said this created uncertainty over when they would begin contributing to the water system.
Until the programme is completed, the WDD said management would continue to be based on prevention and the maintenance of adequate emergency reserves.
The improvement recorded in 2026 should therefore be used to strengthen Cyprus’s resilience to prolonged drought and climate change, rather than justify an increase in water consumption.
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