By Farid Mirbagheri*
The fragile state of no-peace no-war between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States cannot continue indefinitely. All indicators point to renewed fighting most probably with Israel’s participation. Several factors will be decisive in the final outcome.
First and foremost, will be the internal factional politics of Iran, wherein those with visceral enmity to Washington muster sufficient power to derail or to wreck negotiations altogether through intermittent attacks on ships navigating through the Straits of Hormoz. This is what has been happening in the past few days leading to counterattacks by the US on 300 military targets inside Iran. Those in the country preferring a diplomatic outcome, headed by former IRGC general and current parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Ghalibaf, have to be able to either convince or subdue their hardline colleagues. At present it is uncertain who will be victorious in the factional in-fighting.
Secondly, the wavering position of President Trump, has added to the ambiguity embedded in this conflict. From negotiation to war, to negotiation, and now perhaps back to war, whilst the President demonizes and then praises Iranian leaders, the rulers in Tehran are unsure as what to make of the mixed signals they receive and thus constantly have to reassess the strategic objectives of Washington. Does the US aim for the final overthrow of the regime through an implosion within or does she seek to weaken the Islamic regime to the point of complete surrender to American demands? Lack of clarity on that fundamental issue can tempt policymakers in Tehran to make only short-term decision open to sudden changes. The changing tone and the indecisiveness of the US President on his support for human rights in Iran has also disappointed many Iranians, who were hoping for more robust assistance in their fight against tyranny and theocracy.
Thirdly, there is now deep-seated hostility between the people and the regime in Iran. The mass killings of tens of thousands of demonstrators on 8 and 9 January this year has effectively wiped out any chances of a national reconciliation. The gap is now too deep and too wide to be bridged. The explosion of public anger in the streets can once again be triggered to engulf the country by the slightest provocation. This public rage amounts to an irresistible political force in determining the future of Iran. Policy makers in and outside of Iran would be ill-advised to disregard that.
The world has lived with the Islamic Republic of Iran since 1979. Ever since it has been a tumultuous period particularly for the people of Iran. The near half a century of survival for an Islamist regime that has defied international norms and values, chanted death to other countries including the United States and has incurred the wrath of its own population is a remarkable, if horrifying feat in itself. Now the confluence of internal and external factors may be conducive to fundamental changes. From the time of Cyrus the Great and his declaration of human rights in 2500 BC to the years of the Constitutional Revolution in Iran from 1906 to 1909, and to the desperate days of war and peace in 2026, Iran has faced and overcome formidable challenges. This time too Iranians will triumph to restore peace, freedom and justice to their country.
*Farid Mirbagheri is a Professor of International Relations and Senior Fellow at Strategy International
