Polish voters are heading to the polls today for the second round of a tightly contested presidential election that could significantly shape the country’s relationship with the European Union and its stance on sensitive social issues like abortion rights and LGBTQ+ equality.
The run-off pits Warsaw’s 53-year-old mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, a pro-European figure backed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist government, against 42-year-old historian Karol Nawrocki, supported by the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party of outgoing President Andrzej Duda.
Latest opinion polls predict a neck-and-neck race, with Nawrocki securing 50.1% of voter intentions and Trzaskowski 49.9% – a margin within the statistical error.
Polling stations opened at 08:00 local time and are set to close at 22:00 in the EU and NATO member state, which remains a staunch supporter of neighbouring Ukraine in its war with Russia. An exit poll is expected shortly after voting concludes, though official results will not be announced until Monday.
A victory for Trzaskowski would pave the way for the Tusk government, led by the former European Council president, to advance progressive measures. These include introducing civil partnerships for same-sex couples and liberalising the country’s abortion laws, which are currently almost entirely banned in the predominantly Catholic nation (71% Catholic according to a 2021 census).
The Polish president, who governs a country of 38 million people, holds veto power over legislation and is also the nominal head of the armed forces. A win for Nawrocki would bolster the right-wing populist PiS, which governed Poland from 2015 to 2023, and could potentially trigger new parliamentary elections.
Nawrocki’s supporters advocate for stricter immigration controls and greater Polish sovereignty vis-à-vis the EU. A 40-year-old housewife supporting him stated before the vote that “we must not succumb to EU pressure,” but rather “follow our own path” and not “yield to trends dictated by the West.” A 48-year-old engineer echoed this sentiment, saying that while “the European Union is important, our country’s sovereignty is much more important.”
Political analyst Anna Materska-Sosnowska described the election as a “true clash of civilisations,” highlighting the significant polarisation and vast differences between the candidates. Trzaskowski’s supporters seek deeper integration into the EU and accelerated reforms in the country, whose economy is experiencing growth. A 50-year-old tour guide and teacher remarked that “unfortunately, Polish women do not have the same rights as our European friends.”
The election is being closely watched by Kyiv, which seeks to strengthen its diplomatic leverage amid the ongoing war and in anticipation of difficult negotiations with Russia. Karol Nawrocki, an admirer of Donald Trump, opposes Ukraine’s NATO membership and demands that benefits for the approximately one million Ukrainian refugees in Poland be curtailed. Just before the end of the election campaign on Friday, he laid a wreath at a monument to the victims of Ukrainian nationalists in Poland during World War II, stating that a “genocide against the Polish people” had occurred then.
The outcome is expected to hinge on Trzaskowski’s ability to mobilise his supporters and whether far-right voters, whose candidates collectively garnered over 21% of the vote in the first round, will back Nawrocki. Trzaskowski narrowly won the first round on May 18, securing 31% of the vote compared to Nawrocki’s 30%
